Bitcoin’s fourth halving occurred in April 2024, cutting the new Bitcoin mined per block from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Every previous halving (2012, 2016, 2020) was followed by a significant Bitcoin price increase within 12โ18 months. Here’s why โ and what to do with this information.
Why Halvings Affect Price
Bitcoin has a fixed supply of 21 million coins. Halvings reduce the rate of new supply by 50%. If demand stays constant while supply growth halves, basic economics suggests price should rise.
Historical post-halving returns: 2012: +9,916% / 2016: +2,952% / 2020: +707%
Why This Time Might Be Different
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs approved in January 2024 โ institutional money flows more easily
- Market cap is much larger now โ returns will be smaller percentages than early years
- Macro environment (interest rates, inflation) plays a bigger role
How to Position for the Post-Halving Period
Most analysts who correctly called previous halving cycles recommend: build a position gradually using DCA (weekly purchases), maintain 5โ15% of investable assets maximum, set a predetermined exit strategy at 2โ3x your cost basis.
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