Bitcoin’s fourth halving occurred in April 2024, cutting the new Bitcoin mined per block from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Every previous halving (2012, 2016, 2020) was followed by a significant Bitcoin price increase within 12โ€“18 months. Here’s why โ€” and what to do with this information.

Why Halvings Affect Price

Bitcoin has a fixed supply of 21 million coins. Halvings reduce the rate of new supply by 50%. If demand stays constant while supply growth halves, basic economics suggests price should rise.

Historical post-halving returns: 2012: +9,916% / 2016: +2,952% / 2020: +707%

Why This Time Might Be Different

  • Spot Bitcoin ETFs approved in January 2024 โ€” institutional money flows more easily
  • Market cap is much larger now โ€” returns will be smaller percentages than early years
  • Macro environment (interest rates, inflation) plays a bigger role

How to Position for the Post-Halving Period

Most analysts who correctly called previous halving cycles recommend: build a position gradually using DCA (weekly purchases), maintain 5โ€“15% of investable assets maximum, set a predetermined exit strategy at 2โ€“3x your cost basis.

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Past performance does not guarantee future results. This is not financial advice. Crypto can lose 80%+ of value and may not recover on any particular timeline.